
While dog, cat and other pet food markets don’t seem on the verge of apocalypse, four threats may challenge businesses in 2025 and beyond. Those threats echo the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse from the Christian Bible’s Book of Revelation.
The growing number of highly pathogenic avian influenza cases plays the role of Death riding a pale horse. War on its red horse manifests both in ongoing conflicts and trade disputes. Famine, the rider on the black horse, caused populations to decline. Similarly, a decline or stagnation in the number of companion animals poses a problem for the growth of pet businesses. The white horse’s rider came to conquer, and likewise, artificial intelligence could overthrow the dominion of fur babies in the home by replacing them with immortal, hygienic, multi-purpose robotic pets.
1. Highly pathogenic avian influenza
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has recorded cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in domestic cats since 2022. However, in late 2024, a series of HPAI infections related to raw pet foods and unpasteurized milk drew public and federal attention to problem. In Los Angeles County, public health officials confirmed seven cases of H5 bird flu in cats and warned that more cases likely were not detected or tested in laboratories. In Oregon, one allegedly indoor cat caught HPAI virus and subsequently died after eating Northwest Naturals raw frozen turkey pet food. The brand recalled one batch of this product after it tested positive for HPAI, although others challenged these results. The owner of Pacific NW Pets, where the product was sold, told Pets+ that the infected cat was not a strictly indoor cat, contradicting the Oregon Department of Agriculture. The cat, named Villain, frequently accompanied her owner into Pacific NW Pets, the retailer said. The cat also appeared on outdoor excursions in social media posts.
Following the infections in Oregon, California and other states, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration alerted dog and cat food manufacturers using uncooked or unpasteurized materials derived from poultry or cattle, including uncooked meat, unpasteurized milk or unpasteurized eggs, to reanalyze their food safety plans to include HPAI virus as a hazard. The FDA warning applies to all pet food producers covered by the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act Preventive Controls for Animal Food rule.
“Scientific information is evolving, but at this time, it is known that H5N1 can be transmitted to cats and dogs when they eat products from infected poultry or cattle that have not undergone a processing step that is capable of inactivating the virus, such as pasteurizing, cooking or canning,” FDA officials wrote in a press release. “Cats (domestic and large felids), in particular, can experience severe illness or death from infection with H5N1. Dogs can also contract H5N1, although they usually exhibit mild clinical signs and low mortality compared to cats. At present, H5N1 has not been detected in dogs in the United States, but there have been fatal cases in other countries.”
2. Real wars and trade wars
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its fourth year, while hostilities between Israel and Palestine seem to be winding down. The wars have cost thousands of human lives, while disrupting millions of livelihoods. Throughout the conflict, Ukrainian pet food manufacturers continued to operate and even expand, but the disruption of trade challenged the pet food industries in Russia and the rest of Europe.
Although less violent, trade wars can also cost livelihoods. Tariffs on numerous countries, including the largest markets for U.S. pet food and suppliers of raw materials for pet food packaging, could challenge U.S. pet food makers. Canada, Mexico and China, three of the largest export markets for U.S. pet food, may face tariffs. Earlier tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminum imports affected the production of wet pet food containers. These tariffs were later dropped. However, current tariffs on tinplate steel continue to affect pet food makers.
“Tariffs recently imposed on tin plate steel are a serious concern for the pet food industry,” Atalie Ebersole, senior director of government relations for the Petfood Institute stated in a press release. “Tinplate steel is used to produce cans for food packaging and other household products. Approximately 25.1 billion cans are produced each year, of which more than 83% are cans for human and pet food…On Aug. 17, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the preliminary duties for tinplate steel from China will be set at about 122%, 7% for Germany and approximately 5% for Canada.”
Along with the direct effects of tariffs on raw material prices, the nations subject to U.S. tariffs could impose retaliatory measures on U.S. exports to their nations.
3. Population stagnation
Pet ownership in the United States has remained steady on average during the past 14 years. In 2010, 62% of U.S. households included a pet. In 2024, that figure had risen to 63%. However, that modest increase followed fluctuations in ownership rates.
However, American Pet Products Association analysts don’t forecast a significant increase in pet-owning households. By 2030, the number may rise by only one million, with dog ownership declining to 57 million households and cat rising to 45 million.
U.S. pet owners spent approximately US$147 billion in 2023 on pet food, treats and other products. Ingrid Chu, vice president of research and insights for the American Pet Products Association (APPA) revealed that information and other data during her Global Pet Expo 2024 presentation on March 21 in Orlando, Florida, USA.
“That is actually only a 2.7% growth over last year, which isn't huge,” Chu said. “It's, to some, a little disappointing.”
What’s more, the increase in sales value was driven mainly by inflation, not necessarily more sales of pet products.
Without an increasing pet population, the market for pet foods may stagnate. At the same time, increasing urbanization pushes pet owners towards smaller pets, especially cats, that require less space and attention than large dogs. Likewise, aging populations may tend towards lower maintenance pets that don’t require walks or grooming.
4. Artificial intelligence pets
The ultimate is low-maintenance pets may require nothing more than charging. Artificial intelligence became more mainstream last year as numerous competing firms launched AI assistants meant to do everything from writing emails to alleviating loneliness. Refrigerators, vacuums and other household appliances now boast AI that helps keep pantries stocked and floors clean. While many have discussed the potential threat to jobs from AI, pets could be replaced too.
During the Industrial Revolution, machines largely replaced animals as sources of power. Tractors took the place of oxen. Internal combustion engines made carriages auto-mobile while putting horses out to pasture. Donkeys no longer turn millstones in granaries where better mousetraps take the place of mouser cats. Video cameras and alarm systems have allowed guard dogs to go soft as fur babies. Could a further evolution of the machines relegate even pampered pets to history?
Robots have already begun replacing flesh-and-blood fur babies. Synthetic pets help those who couldn’t otherwise have a furry companion. Ultimate Pet Nutrition sponsored Pets for Vets, a nonprofit organization that finds homes for dogs and cats in shelters with U.S. Armed Forces veterans. Not all of those pets were biological. Pets for Vets has provided dozens of robotic dogs or cats for veterans whose circumstances precluded a live pet.
Robotic pets have come a long way from the Tamagotchis and Furbies of my youth. Petoi’s Bittle X robotic dog responds to more than 35 voice commands with the ability to custom program 10 more. The palm-sized robotic Rover uses nine servos to run, flip and otherwise caper. Open-source, blockchain-based, C++ and Python programming languages allow owners to program their pooches via Bluetooth and WiFi. Optional sensors allow the Bittle X to visually track owners’ movements so robo-retrievers can follow objects and respond to hand signals.
Along with teaching artificial dogs new tricks, owners of these synthetic pets don’t have to deal with some of the downsides of biological companion animals. Robots don’t defecate, urinate, vomit or cough up hairballs. Machines don’t chew sneakers or scratch furniture. When a person goes on a long trip, a cyber-cat can simply power off. Like Wilford Brimley in “Cocoon,” robot pets will never get sick, won’t get any older and won’t ever die. Even if the battery does die, it can be recharged.
However, most robot dogs have yet to achieve the cuddle factor of living pets. The Bittle X is hard plastic with a head that looks like a statue of Anubis, ancient Egypt’s jackal god of funerals. On the other hand, the fluffy robot animals distributed by Pets for Vets lack the dynamism of Bittle X or its cat cousin Nybble. Eventually though, someone will put a furry covering and memory foam coating on a highly functional robot, like Boston Dynamics’ Spot.
Once AI partners with a cuddly robot, the pet industry may face a real challenge. Like an android, modeled after a human, a zoodroid could take the best qualities of pets, yet never pee on the couch or need boarding during vacation. People could work late or take the kids on one more errand without worrying that the dog was suffering and crossing his legs. Beyond the biological necessities, a doe-eyed, fluffy robot could learn exactly what most amuses its owner by trying millions of behaviors learned from living or fictional animals. What's more, it could perform chores around the house. Even dogs only vacuum up lost French fries, while a zoodroid could clean the rug while you were away like a Roomba.
Could a Furby-1000 terminate the pet food industry? It may seem far-fetched, but many odd, unexpected technologies have changed the world. Today’s synthetic pets may seem like clunky novelties, but so did early horse-less carriages and moving pictures.