Many pet food professionals might want a fortune teller right now. A little bit of certainty would be nice, considering recent tariffs, avian influenza cases in cats and potential regulation changes, not to mention the chaotic past decade with its pandemic, canine dilated cardiomyopathy fears, inflation, wars and other unpleasant surprises. However, there are some things the pet food industry can be sure of.
Fortune tellers seem to forecast the future by predicting things that are likely to happen. These three surefire predictions influencing the global pet food industry provide a degree of certainty in turbulent times…although like a circus prognosticator, I’m not telling you much you don’t already know.
1. Premiumization and humanization remain twin top trends
Premiumization and humanization feed each other as they fuel the global pet food industry. Consumers increasingly consider pets as family members, and in turn, expect their food to mirror the quality, safety and sourcing standards of human food. From ingredient transparency and clean labels to functional nutrition and ethical sourcing, this convergence continues to influence formulation trends across cultures globally.
This dual trend has been visible across geographic regions and economic levels, with growth in emerging markets, including China, as well as more mature pet food markets, like the United States and Europe. As pet owners apply the same purchasing logic to pet foods as they do to their own, demand rises for premium pet foods. That dynamic is unlikely to change. People may dehumanize each other, but they seem unlikely to dehumanize their fur babies.
2. Dogs and cats dominate the market
Despite growing interest in nontraditional companion animals, such as leopard geckos, the global pet food market remains overwhelmingly centered on dogs and cats. These two species account for the majority of pet ownership worldwide, and in turn, the majority of pet food sales. This focus reflects not only ownership patterns, but also regulatory attention, scientific research and product availability. Product innovation remains most active in dog and cat food, from breed-specific formulas to life-stage nutrition and prescription diets. For the foreseeable future, dogs and cats will continue to be the primary species driving global pet food growth. However, the conventional dynamic of dogs as, well, top dogs, may be changing. Cats have grown in popularity relative to dogs, even in the U.S.
3. Continued resilience despite premium ceiling
Although premiumization is a dominant force, there may be a limit to how much prices can rise. In the United States, for example, sales volume has remained steady with only value increases accounting for growth. There may be a potential for a "peak premiumization" point, a threshold at which sales value won’t continue growing. In markets besieged by inflation and cost-of-living pressures, elasticity may eventually snap.
However, even in periods of economic downturn, the pet food category has historically proven resilient. Pet owners may trade down within premium tiers or switch brands, but few stop purchasing altogether. Their pets need to eat one way or the other. The bond between people and pets reinforces this. In general, pet owners continue to prioritize feeding their animals, even when moderating their own spending.
Taken together, these three predictions suggest a pet food industry that is both dynamic and stable. Although influenced by the events of the worlds, the pet food industry is driven by evolving human attitudes towards pets, while likewise buffered by the human-animal bonds that transcend economic cycles.
