By Ulyana Fitsa, chief supply chain officer & head of sales in Western Europe, Kormotech
You can't predict the next disruption — but you can be ready.
The crisis around the Strait of Hormuz set off a chain reaction: from rising oil prices to polymer feedstock shortages and a sharp spike in the cost of flexible packaging materials. After the ceasefire collapsed in the summer, the strait has remained effectively closed to most traffic. In August, an average of about 12 vessels passed through it per day, compared with 130 to 140 before the war.
There is no outright shortage of finished pet food products on shelves — industry associations confirm that manufacturers are still fulfilling all ordered volumes. But production costs are climbing — packaging, energy and logistics are all getting more expensive at the same time. Analysts forecast that pressure on polymer markets could prove prolonged: they no longer expect a full normalization in 2026, and the effects of the crisis may still be felt in 2027.
North America has found itself in a relatively better position on polyethylene: domestic production relies heavily on ethane derived from natural gas. However, feedstock shortages in other regions have redirected part of global demand toward American producers, pushing up prices for both polyethylene and polypropylene. In the end, the feedstock advantage of U.S. producers has not shielded American packaging buyers from higher costs.
This is yet another reminder: We cannot predict where or under what circumstances the next supply disruption will emerge, but we can build a system that allows us to adapt quickly when it does. The four principles below won't eliminate risk, but they help you spot threats earlier and switch to a fallback faster.
Kormotech
Treat suppliers as an early-warning system
As Nicole Paley of UK Pet Food noted in a comment to Petfood Industry, pet food manufacturers have become significantly more resilient in recent years — precisely because they were forced to. But that resilience is not accidental; it is the result of decisions made before the crisis hit.
Having managed supply chains through COVID-19 and the full-scale war in Ukraine, I have learned that resilience comes down to lead time and optionality, built in advance. One way to buy that time is to pick up a signal about a problem before it turns into a supply stoppage. And here, suppliers can be more than just a source of materials — they can serve as an early-warning system.
In the first days of the invasion, our company had to cut its pet food product range by more than 90%. What allowed us to restore it in weeks rather than months was not luck — it was the reserves and the partner relationships we had built before the crisis.
Typically, the relationship with suppliers is transactional: order, receive, pay. But an honest answer from a supplier — whether they have access to raw materials, whether they can fulfill an order on time, and whether they see a risk of delay — can give a manufacturer critically important time to react. That kind of candor, however, only comes from relationships built on trust, and those need to be cultivated long before a crisis hits. Engage with your suppliers beyond purchase orders and share your own demand forecasts with them.
Diversify your supplier base
Even a flawless sole supplier of a critical material is your greatest vulnerability: You pay for the convenience of that dependence precisely when things break down. That is why it is important to maintain several alternatives, test products, split volumes, run tenders and constantly look for new solutions.
A broader supplier network offers another advantage — a wider view of the market. If one partner reports a delay or problems with raw material availability, it may be a localized disruption. If the same signals come from multiple sources, that helps you see a systemic issue and adjust purchasing decisions sooner. Alternative suppliers, then, are not just your backup in case of a failed delivery — they are additional sources of intelligence about what is happening in the market.
Build a culture that surfaces risk early
Category managers and logistics specialists see the first signs of a disruption before anyone else: a delayed shipment, an evasive response from a supplier, an unusual price movement. If those signals are captured and passed along without delay, the company gains critical time.
But for that to happen, people need to understand more than just their own category — they need context: which materials are critical to production, what market shifts the company is already tracking, and why even a small deviation may matter. Then a manager does not wait for a delay to turn into a shortage but raises the issue at the first atypical signal.
Regular feedback from the procurement team, information sharing across functions and a focus on what is happening beyond the company's walls make it possible to spot a trend before it becomes a problem.
Make substitution a cross-functional capability
Multiple suppliers save you when one of them falls through. But when a shortage hits an entire material category — as happened this year with some polymer feedstocks — the number of suppliers no longer helps.
What saves you then is the ability to substitute the material itself. Build that capability before a crisis. In the case of packaging, this may mean pre-qualifying alternative films and materials. But do not leave it to procurement alone. In pet food, a different film is not automatically interchangeable. R&D must verify that it preserves the required barrier properties and the product's stated shelf life, quality control must confirm it meets safety requirements, and production must ensure the material runs reliably on existing equipment.
A resilient supply chain detects early signs of an approaching disruption, does not depend on a single source, quickly relays risk information to decision-makers and has alternatives verified in advance.
At the same time, the current crisis makes work that should be pursued regardless of market conditions even more urgent — optimizing the use of packaging materials. This can mean reducing package sizes or the amount of material where possible without compromising the product.
Crises often accelerate the rethinking of established practices — from materials and suppliers to logistics processes. And some of the changes that began as a response to shortages or rising costs remain beneficial long after the market stabilizes.
Ulyana FitsaKormotech
