A strengthening El Niño expected to peak in fall and winter 2026-27 could significantly affect the availability and cost of plant-based pet food ingredients through regional surpluses and shortages, though effects will vary considerably by crop and production area rather than causing a global grain shortage.
- NOAA reports El Niño has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong in fall and winter 2026-27, with 69% odds of exceeding all previous El Niños since 1950
- Rice faces the highest risk due to vulnerable rainfed production in India and Southeast Asia, though India's large inventories provide temporary protection
- Soybeans may be resilient, with historical data showing El Niño increased global yields by 2.1% to 5.4%, and U.S. production projected at record levels
- Australia's wheat, barley, and chickpea production face significant declines, with wheat down 26% and chickpeas down 51% forecasted for 2026-27
- Palm oil effects will lag 12-16 months, meaning production disruptions could extend into 2027-2028 and continue affecting vegetable oil markets
A strengthening El Niño could alter the availability and cost of several plant-based ingredients commonly used in dog and cat foods. However, officials and experts note that the effects may vary significantly by crop and production region.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Aug. 13 that El Niño is present and strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27. NOAA also estimated a 69% chance that the October-December event will exceed all previous El Niños observed in its record since 1950.
For pet food producers, the primary concern may not be a broad global grain shortage. Instead, El Niño could create regional surpluses and shortages that affect ingredient prices, transportation and sourcing options.
Corn
U.S. corn production remains large, although projected inventories have tightened.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast the 2026 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre and production at about 16 billion bushels. However, USDA subsequently lowered projected 2026-27 ending stocks to 42 million metric tons as expected domestic use and exports increased.
South American production could benefit from El Niño rainfall in some regions. Meteorologist Germán Heinzenknecht of Argentina's Applied Climatology Consultancy told Reuters that greater rainfall could improve soil moisture for corn, soybeans and wheat in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil.
Too much rainfall could bring its own problems, including flooding, fungal diseases, nutrient losses and transportation disruptions.
Conditions may be less favorable in parts of Asia. The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization has identified India and Southeast Asia among regions vulnerable to El Niño-related drought. In India, weaker monsoon rainfall could affect rainfed corn production.
Soybeans
Soybeans may be among the more resilient major pet food crops during El Niño.
A 2014 study published in Nature Communications found that El Niño historically increased average global soybean yields by approximately 2.1% to 5.4%. Those figures describe historical associations and are not a forecast for the current event.
Current U.S. supplies also appear relatively strong. USDA projects a record 2026 soybean crop of about 4.52 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre. Global soybean crushing is projected at approximately 384.8 million metric tons.
South American soybeans could benefit from increased rainfall in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and southern Brazil. However, northern and western Brazil may face hotter and drier conditions, while altered rainfall could interfere with river transportation used to move soybeans to export markets.
India faces a different risk. Reuters reported Aug. 11 that India's monsoon rainfall was running 12% below average, threatening recently planted soybeans, corn and pulse crops.
Rice
Rice may be among the crop ingredients most exposed to the current El Niño.
India and Southeast Asia are particularly important because El Niño can weaken monsoon rainfall across the region. FAO has identified rainfed rice production in India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia as vulnerable to drought associated with the event.
The immediate global supply situation provides some protection. Reuters reported that India holds rice inventories equivalent to more than one year of total global rice exports and accounts for roughly 40% of international rice trade.
Those stocks, however, do not eliminate the risk of market disruption.
Andrew Coburn, founder and chairman of climate-risk consultancy Risilience [sic] and a chief scientist at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, wrote in a Reuters commentary that severe production losses could encourage governments to protect domestic rice supplies through trade restrictions, potentially amplifying international price increases.
Wheat
Wheat faces significant regional variation.
Australia is an important market to watch. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecasts 2026-27 Australian wheat production at 26.7 million metric tons, down 26% from the previous season.
However, El Niño does not mean uniformly dry conditions across Australia. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's latest seasonal outlook favors below-average rainfall in southeastern Australia and far southwestern Western Australia, while parts of western Australia have greater odds of above-average rainfall.
Global wheat inventories also provide some protection, although their distribution matters. China holds nearly half of global wheat stocks, according to Reuters. Those reserves are not generally available for export, but they could reduce Chinese demand for imported wheat if production declines elsewhere.
Russia's growth as a major wheat exporter also provides the international market with a supply source that was much smaller during previous severe El Niño events.
Meanwhile, rainfall associated with El Niño could improve wheat conditions in Argentina and neighboring countries.
Barley
Australia's barley sector faces many of the same weather pressures as wheat.
ABARES forecasts Australian barley production at 14.1 million metric tons in 2026-27, down 15% from the previous season.
Australian farmers have increased barley acreage in some regions because the crop requires less fertilizer and can perform relatively well under dry conditions.
Barley could therefore serve as an alternative cereal ingredient in some pet food formulations where nutritional requirements allow it. However, reduced Australian production could limit its economic advantage in international markets.
Sorghum
Sorghum is another potential alternative grain used in some pet food formulations.
ABARES estimated Australian sorghum production at just under 2.5 million metric tons during the 2025-26 season, down about 8% from the previous year. Below-average rainfall reduced average yields by approximately 17%.
Sorghum is relatively drought tolerant, but prolonged dry conditions can still reduce production.
Peas, lentils and chickpeas
Pulse ingredients present a more complicated picture because production varies considerably by crop and region.
Australian chickpeas are particularly exposed. ABARES forecasts chickpea production at approximately 1.1 million metric tons in 2026-27, down 51% from the previous season, following reduced planting in Queensland and New South Wales.
Lentils have a very different outlook. ABARES forecasts Australian lentil production rising 3% to a record 2.2 million metric tons.
India's pulse crops also face El Niño-related risks. Reuters reported that weaker monsoon rainfall threatens recently planted pulses along with soybeans and corn.
Canola
Australian canola production is also expected to decline.
ABARES forecasts 2026-27 production at 6.2 million metric tons, down 20% from the previous season. Reduced acreage, fertilizer costs and weather conditions contributed to the lower outlook.
For pet food manufacturers, the primary implications involve canola oil and canola meal. Companies that can substitute among vegetable oils may have more flexibility to manage price increases than those requiring a particular oil source for nutritional or labeling purposes.
Palm oil
Palm oil could experience some of the most delayed effects from the current El Niño.
Malaysia-based SD Guthrie, one of the world's largest palm oil producers, expects the current event to affect production primarily in 2027 and 2028.
CEO Mohd Haris Mohd Arshad told Reuters that drought and heat typically reduce palm oil production after a lag of approximately 12 to 16 months.
Current global palm oil inventories remain relatively high. However, those stocks could decline if Southeast Asian yields weaken while Indonesia increases domestic palm oil consumption for biodiesel production.
That lag makes palm oil different from annual crops. The consequences of the 2026 El Niño could continue affecting vegetable oil markets even after the climate pattern itself weakens.
