After four years of double-digit gains, the U.S. pet food market may be cooling down from its inflation-fueled highs. Packaged Facts analysts project U.S. retail sales of dog and cat food to top US$55 billion in 2025. A big number, but only a modest 2.8% increase over 2024.
According to Packaged Facts’ report “Pet Food in the U.S., 19th Edition (November 2025),” retail dollar sales of dog and cat food rose 14% in 2020, 15% in both 2021 and 2022, and 13% in 2023. But in 2022 and 2023, much of that growth was driven by price rather than volume, as the pet food consumer price index (CPI) climbed 10% and 11%, respectively. In 2024, the dynamic flipped: the pet food CPI fell by 1.7%, yet category growth slowed sharply to 3.7%, with sales reaching an estimated US$53.7 billion.
“In the long term, Packaged Facts projects moderate (in relation to the 2021-2024 period) pet food performance through 2029, with sales being driven by fresh, gently cooked pet foods, which carry a super-premium price tag and have yet to be well-established in the cat market,” analysts wrote in the report.
This growth slowdown may be related to both economic strain on households and demographic pressure from a declining dog population.
Macroeconomic factors lead to trading-down in pet food sales
Survey findings in the report show how deeply the current economy is affecting pet owners. In Packaged Facts’ January 2025 Survey of Pet Owners, 31% of pet owners said their ability to buy nonessentials had been negatively affected by the economic environment, compared with only 10% who reported a positive impact. Similarly, 29% reported negative effects on their ability to pay monthly bills, with 18% citing harm to their housing situation and 17% to their personal job situation.
In September 2025, Packaged Facts reports that 84% of pet owners were concerned about rising prices for human food, 67% about beverages, and 66% about pet food specifically. Concern was somewhat lower, though still a majority, for treats (56%) and non-food pet supplies (53%), reflecting the more discretionary nature of those categories. Against that backdrop, trading down on pet food is less about experimentation and more about financial triage.
In Packaged Facts’ September 2025 Survey of Pet Owners, among dog and cat owners who changed pet food in the prior 12 months, about one-third switched to less expensive national or store brands. Lower-income households were significantly more likely to move to lower-priced products, while households earning US$100,000 or more were significantly more likely to trade up to higher-priced options.
The report warns that this “trade-down” behavior may be sticky. Pet owners who have switched to cheaper products and find that their pets tolerate them well may be unlikely to resume their higher-priced purchases, at least until their own economic recovery feels secure. That dynamic, trading down but not back, is central to why inflation’s effects on the category are likely to be long-lasting.
Private label versus premium pet food in value-focused economy
Private label has emerged as a key beneficiary of this shift in the overall consumer packaged goods market. Packaged Facts cites a March 2025 Numerator survey showing that 99.9% of U.S. households purchased private label products of some sort in 2024, with penetration of 98% or more across groceries, health and beauty, household items, and home and garden. The price gap between private label and national brands widened by 38% between 2019 and 2024, making store brands an even stronger value proposition.
In pet care specifically, private label pet care products accounted for 2% of dollar sales growth with unit sales growth of 3.3% in the first half of 2025, according to Private Label Manufacturers Association data cited in the report. Pet food and treats ranked among the top 20 non-edible categories for both store brand dollar and unit sales in 2024. At the same time, Packaged Facts’ September 2025 survey found that 47% of pet owners agree that private label or store brands provide quality comparable to national brand pet foods, up from 37% in October 2023, a ten-point jump in perceived quality parity in just two years.
The premiumization uber-trend isn’t dead, though. Despite the shift toward value, pet owners have not abandoned their focus on health and wellness, in particular. Packaged Facts reports that in its January 2025 survey, 79% of dog owners and 82% of cat owners cited pet food as an important pet health and wellness product—far outpacing other categories like flea and tick prevention. In the September 2025 survey, 70% of dog and cat owners said they are willing to pay more for foods with health and wellness benefits.
A paradox arises…owners still want premium pet food, but they are less willing to pay a premium. Functional and condition-specific formulations may help break this paradox. Formulations targeting issues such as senior support, digestive health, allergies and heart health can meet demands for health and wellness. However, even these focused formulations must get past the stickiness of trading down.
Consumers have recalibrated what they consider acceptable value, and many who traded down are not looking back.
