According to a recent analysis, pet acquisition trends showed little sign of recovery, with cats outperforming dogs across multiple data points — a dynamic that carries meaningful implications for pet food manufacturers tracking population-driven demand.
That's the assessment of Chris Bottiglieri, senior analyst with BNP Paribas Equity Research, who refreshed his firm's five-lens framework for evaluating pet acquisition trends ahead of upcoming Q4 earnings reports from Petco and Chewy.
"Broader trends remain subdued, though cats seem to be outperforming dogs," Bottiglieri said.
Adoption data tells only part of the story
Bottiglieri cautioned against reading too heavily into shelter and rescue data as a proxy for overall pet population health. Adoption accounts for only about 35% to 40% of new pet acquisition, he noted, and more pets enter shelters annually than are adopted or returned to owners. Species such as fish, reptiles, birds and poultry are largely absent from adoption data sets altogether.
"Though adoption data is constantly in focus as investors and the Street look for industry green shoots, we are cautious to rely on this data to understand population growth," he said.
Five lenses, one consistent signal
Bottiglieri's framework incorporates retailer and hard pet care commentary, third-party shelter and rescue data, Google Search interest by dog breed and size, web traffic around adoption search activity, and read-throughs from veterinary sources. Across all five, the picture was consistent: no clear inflection point.
Overall adoption trends edged up 0.7% year over year in 2025, but that modest gain was driven entirely by cats, which rose 2.2%, while dog adoptions slipped 0.8%.
"This is bad for the category as annual dog spend tends to outweigh cats," Bottiglieri said — a notable concern for manufacturers whose product mix skews toward canine. On the retail side, he flagged the divergence as a relative positive for Chewy given its higher cat mix.
Cost pressures weigh on dog acquisition
Bottiglieri tied the softness in dog adoption to elevated costs for maintenance and veterinary services, a dynamic he said may also be reflected in vet visit data that turned increasingly negative through 2025.
Google Search data corroborated the species-level split, with cat-related search interest outpacing dog. However, Bottiglieri noted a potential bottoming signal in dog search activity by breed and size — a tentative indicator worth monitoring in coming quarters.
Adoption site web traffic told a more cautionary story. Trailing 12-month search interest around adoption sites worsened year over year, declining in the low double digits in 2025 after a mid-single-digit decline in 2024.
