Although the national year over year monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.6% in October 2024, ‘petflation’ rates fell slightly to 2.0%, according to John Gibbons of PetBusinessProfessor.com in his October 2024 report.
The national year over year monthly CPI rate is up from the September 2024 rate of 2.4% but it is 19% below the 22>23 rate and 66% less than 21>22.
Pet products (-0.7%) were the main driver in the fall of ‘petflation’ rates. The pet food CPI was -1.3%, creating seven consecutive months of deflation.
2022 compared to 2024
- U.S. CPI – Prices are +0.1% from Sep. The YOY increase is 2.6%, up from 2.4%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are now 30+% higher than the target. The October increase was a big change after 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep. The current rate is below 22>23 but the 21>24 rate is still +14.1%, 62.1% of the total inflation since 2019. Inflation was growing in October 2021, +6.2%.
- Pet food – Prices are -0.3% vs Sep. and -1.3% vs Oct. 23, down from -0.9%. They are still significantly below the Food at Home inflation rate, +1.1%. The YOY drop of -1.3% is being measured against a time when prices were 23.1% above the 2019 level and the current decrease is actually less than the -1.7% drop from 2019 to 2020. The 2021>2024 inflation surge generated 98% of the 21.3% inflation since 2019. Inflation began in 2021.
YTD -- 2022 compared to 2024
- U.S. CPI – The 23>24 rate is 3.0%, the same as September, but it is down 30% from 22>23, 64% less than 21>22 and 29% below the average YOY increase from 2019>2024. However, it’s still 27% more than the average annual increase from 2018>2021. 72% of the 22.7% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.
- Pet food – YTD inflation is 0.5%, down from 0.7% in Sep. and 96% less than the 22>23 rate. Now, it is also 95% lower than 21>22 and 43% below the average rate from 2018>2021. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate on the chart and remains in 2nd place in the 21>24 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 2022 and especially in 2023. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24.
Update: Pet food producer price index (PPI)
The Retail Price changes usually mirror the Dog and Cat PPI but lag slightly. They peaked in May 23, fell slightly in Jun>Aug, turned up in Sep/Oct, flattened in Nov, fell in Dec>Feb, rose in March, fell Apr>May, rose in June then fell in Jul>Oct. There was a 0.9% PPI lift in February but stability in Mar>Oct. After the big drop in July, the Other Pet Food PPI rose in Aug. but fell in Sep>Oct and is still deflating.
Dog and cat food prices only increased 0.75% since March 2023, showing 18 months of stability.
Pet Food Retail CPI is -1.3% from October 2023, and -0.3% versus September 2024. The “Other pet food” category is -9.4% from October 2023.
