In his March 2025 report, John Gibbons, of PetBusinessProfessor.com, shared insight on how the year over year (YOY) monthly ‘petflation’ versus 2024 decreased from 2.4% in February to 1.3% in March.
“That’s a big drop,” said Gibbons. “Especially when prices only fell -0.1% from February 2025. The key driver in the big YOY decrease was the fact that pet prices rose +1.0% Feb > Mar 2024.”
A similar situation occurred in the National consumer price index (CPI). YOY inflation versus 2024 fell to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February. This happened despite a Feb > Mar 25 price increase of +0.2%, according to Gibbons.
2022 compared to 2025
- U.S. CPI– Prices are +0.2% from Feb. The YOY increase is 2.4%, down from 2.8%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are still 20+% higher than the target. The Feb/Mar drops follow 4 straight lifts after 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep. The current rate is below 23>24 but the 21>25 rate is still +20.7%, 80.2% of the total inflation since 2019. The Inflation surge was just starting in March 2021, +2.6%.
- Pet food – Prices are -0.5% vs Feb and -0.9% vs Mar 24, a big change from +0.4% in February. They are even farther below the Food at Home inflation rate of +2.4%. The YOY Pet Food CPI has now deflated in 12 of the last 13 months. The 2021>2025 inflation surge has generated 93.3% of the 23.8% inflation since 2019. Inflation began for Pet Food in June 2021, +0.9%, after 12 straight deflationary months.
YTD -- 2022 compared to 2025
- U.S. CPI – The 24>25 rate is 2.7%, only down 16% from 23>24, but it is down 53% from 22>23, 66% less than 21>22 and 30.8% below the average increase from 2019>2025. However, it’s still 46% more than the average increase from 2018>2020. 81% of the 26.1% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.
- Pet food – Year to date prices are still deflated -0.5%, down from Feb, but up from -1.1% in Jan. That’s a big change from 3.0% in 23>24, 14.9% in 22>23 and the 2.0% 18>20 average. However, it is still higher than the -0.6% deflation in 20>21. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate but is only #5 in the 21>25 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 22 and especially in 23. 91% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>25.
Update: Pet food producer price index (PPI)
The Retail Price changes usually mirror the Dog/Cat PPI but lag slightly. They peaked in May 23. Then got on a rollercoaster. They fell -0.5% in March 2025. The Dog/Cat PPI reached a new record high in Mar 25, but it has only increased +1.5% since Mar 23. In the Other Pet Food PPI, prices peaked at +36.9% in Feb 23 and are still deflating vs last year.
Dog and cat food prices are only +1.5% since March 2023, showing 24 months of stability.
