Recent industry conversations reveal a stark divide: some stakeholders insist "the pet food sector is in decline" and that 2025 has brought continued demand depression. Others claim business is stable or even improving. Who's right?
The data tells a clearer story. The market isn't collapsing — it's undergoing a reconfiguration. The result is modest but positive growth, driven by stronger performance among leading producers, while secondary players face more challenging conditions. To support this, here are two solid and irrefutable arguments — one technical, the other a first-hand industry statement.
1. The INEGI Data: A Technical Argument Backed by Econometrics
Mexico's monthly production data for dog and cat food, published by INEGI, reveals a clear shift. Beginning in 2022, the market experienced a two-year deceleration phase, with output gradually softening. This slowdown bottomed out around September 2024, when production rebounded — a seasonal effect typical for this industry.
What happened next proves critical: the rebound wasn't followed by a downturn. From October 2024 through at least March 2025, production has remained strong. A forecast model based on decomposition of trend and seasonality shows that the 2022 slowdown is reversing — not accelerating. While growth remains moderate, the trend direction is no longer downward.
This aligns with the hypothesis that the market has completed a structural adjustment. The shift toward smaller dog breeds — and different product preferences — has already occurred. The market is now stabilizing within this new reality.
2. A Primary Source: Industry Confirms the Trend
Daniel Cosío, a respected industry voice, recently stated in an interview that the sector grew by 6% in the first quarter of 2025. This confirms the analysis: not all companies are suffering. Results are mixed, but top-tier producers are already seeing gains.
In the Mexican pet food market, adaptable companies are capturing new growth while those clinging to the past may continue struggling.TheOtherKev | Pixabay.com
Growth returns, but not for everyone
The Mexican pet food industry is not in decline — it's shifting. Companies able to adapt in formulation, distribution, and breed focus are already capturing new growth. Those clinging to the past may continue feeling the downturn.
This isn't a crisis — it's a sorting mechanism. The future belongs to those who understand the shift and act on it.
