On the latest episode of the Trending: Pet Food podcast, Nicole Hill, vice president of strategy and innovation at MarketPlace, joined host Lindsay Beaton, editor of Petfood Industry, to discuss the findings of MarketPlace's recently published Nextin dog trends report and what they mean for pet food manufacturers navigating a challenging market.
Hill draws on more than 13 years at MarketPlace leading Nextin Research, a consumer intelligence division that has partnered with brands including BARK, Kerry, TropiClean and Farmland Traditions. In the episode, she covers everything from how dog owners are building customized bowls to why fresh pet food brands face growing economic headwinds — and where white space remains for brands willing to look ahead.
Here are the Top 10 Takeaways from EPISODE 104: Dog food trends point to innovation, affordability balance:
1. Fresh pet food momentum continues, but affordability is creating friction. The fresh pet food category isn't losing consumer interest, but economic pressure is forcing a reckoning. "Fresh pet momentum — it isn't slowing down, but it is being challenged by the need for affordability," Hill said.
Brands that can't offer a more accessible price point risk being left behind as consumers reassess how they allocate their pet food budgets.
2. Dog owners are building bowls, not buying a single product. The "one-scoop-and-done" feeding model is giving way to a more layered approach.
"In many ways, it's a culinary experience for the pet as much as the pet parent — combining dry, liquid and in-between products to introduce variety and promote functional nutrition," Hill said.
This behavior opens opportunities for brands that can position their portfolio as a complementary system.
3. Brand loyalty is real but conditional — especially for toppers and add-ons. While roughly 40% of dog owners have fed their pet the same brand for the entire time they've owned that dog, willingness to cross brand lines increases when it comes to supplemental products. According to Hill, as long as main ingredients are consistent with what a pet is already eating, consumers are open to experimenting with different brands to complete a meal.
4. Most brands are leaving the "system" opportunity on the table. Few brands merchandise their full portfolio — kibble, wet, fresh, toppers — as an integrated system a pet parent can customize. Hill identified this as a significant missed opportunity, noting that fear of cannibalization and shelf space constraints are holding brands back.
"There is probably some fear of inefficiency or cannibalization within a portfolio," she said, but failing to connect the dots means consumers are building systems using competing brands instead.
5. All-natural, affordable and functional are the top three purchase drivers. When dog owners select a food, more than a third cite "all-natural ingredients" as a top-three factor, more than a third cite "affordable price," and 32% cite a specific health benefit.
"It's that 'I want it all' mentality," Hill said — quality-sourced ingredients, perceived naturalness and a functional payoff, all at an accessible price.
6. "Natural" means different things to different consumers, and the industry hasn't caught up. Consumer definitions of "natural" continue to resist industry standardization. Hill cited a striking data point: 40% of consumers motivated to purchase cultivated meat dog food still ranked "all-natural ingredients" as a top-three decision factor.
"It points to a potential future trajectory where there is motivation for naturalness without a shared definition with the industry," she said.
7. Health and wellness benefits lead the path to purchase — and span food, treats and supplements. Consumers who purchase "functional" treats, supplements and dental care products over-index across every health need state Hill's team tracks. "They're purchasing products motivated by multiple need states, even more so than the average dog owner," she said. The "functional mindset" is psychographic, not category-specific — a values-driven orientation that cuts across product types.
8. Trial is a real barrier, and brands need to lower the stakes. When a consumer doesn't know whether a new product will work for their dog, the cost of being wrong is a meaningful deterrent.
"Brands are going to have to make a strong case to drive trial and offer trial-friendly pack sizes that allow for low-stakes barriers to entry when it comes to new product innovation," Hill said. This is especially critical for novel formats and delivery systems.
9. Consumer segments require different value messaging. Hill identified distinct segments including "budget balancers" (34% of dog owners, selective in purchase categories and price-motivated) and "eco-agents" (13%, sustainability-focused but not premium-format-driven).
"It really is segment specific in terms of how brands communicate their value to different pet owner audiences," she said. A single message won't resonate across the board.
10. 2026 will be a buyer's market — and fresh pet food will see significant consolidation pressure. Hill predicted a competitive shakeout in the fresh segment, with brands either capitalizing on shifting market dynamics or struggling to hold ground.
"This year, it's going to be a buyer's market," she said. Pet parents have more options than ever, she noted, and some will scale back the number of products in their dog's bowl — making every spot in that feeding routine something brands will have to actively earn.
