
John Gibbons, of PetBusinessProfessor.com, shared insights on how year over year (YOY) monthly ‘petflation’ fell to 2.0% in December from Novembers 2.9% in his December 2024 report.
“The ‘Petflation’ recovery paused in Aug, came back Sep>Oct, paused in Nov, then resumed in Dec,” said Gibbons. “At 2.0%, Dec was 37% below the 25 year monthly average and the 2.6% rate for 2024 was 17% below the annual average.”
Pet prices are 18.8% above those of 2021, and 24.2% higher than in 2019. While all prices in current segments are within 2% of the highest in history.
The national year over year monthly CPI rate of 2.9% is up from the previous 2.7%, but it is still 15% below the 22>23 rate. And 55% lower than the 21>22.
2022 compared to 2024
- U.S. CPI – Prices are +0.04% from Nov. The YOY increase is 2.9%, up from 2.7%. It peaked at +9.1% back in June 2022. The targeted inflation rate is <2% so we are now 45+% higher than the target. The December increase was the 3rd straight lift after 6 consecutive drops from Apr>Sep. The current rate is below 22>23 but the 21>24 rate is still +13.2%, 57.9% of the total inflation since 2019. Inflation was growing in November 2021, +7.0%.
- Pet food – Prices are -0.6% vs Nov. but -1.7% vs Dec. 23, down from -1.2%. They are still far below the Food at Home inflation rate of +1.8%. The YOY drop of -1.7% is being measured against a time when prices were 23.0% above the 2019 level but the current decrease is still more than double the -0.75% drop from 2019 to 2020. The 2021>2024 inflation surge generated 91% of the 20.9% inflation since 2019. Inflation began in June 2021.
YTD -- 2022 compared to 2024
- U.S. CPI – The 23>24 rate is 2.9%, below 3.0% in November, but it is down 29% from 22>23, 64% less than 21>22 and 31% below the average annual increase from 2019>2024. However, it’s still 93% more than the average annual increase from 2018>2020. 70% of the 22.7% inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24. Inflation is a big problem that started recently.
- Pet food – YTD inflation is 0.2%, down from 0.3% in Nov. and 98.1% less than the 22>23 rate. Now, it is also 98.0% lower than 21>22 and 87% below the average rate from 2018>2021. Pet Food has the highest 22>23 rate on the chart and remains in 2nd place in the 21>24 rates. Deflation in the 1st half of 2021 kept YTD prices low then they surged in 2022 and especially in 2023. 96% of the inflation since 2019 occurred from 2021>24.
Update: Pet food producer price index (PPI)
The Retail Price changes usually mirror the Dog and Cat PPI but lag slightly. They peaked in May 23, fell slightly in Jun>Aug, turned up in Sep/Oct, flattened in Nov, fell in Dec>Feb, rose in March, fell Apr>May, rose in June then fell in Jul>Oct, now up in Nov. There was a 0.9% PPI lift in February but stability in Mar>Sep, then a +0.1% in Oct. After the big drop in July, the Other Pet Food PPI rose in Aug. but fell in Sep>Nov. They have now flattened in December.
Dog and cat food prices only increased 0.84% since March 2023, showing 21 months of stability.
Pet Food Retail CPI is -1.7% from December 2023, and -0.6% versus November 2024. The “Other pet food” category is -9.3% from December 2023.