In the latter half of 2023, pet adoptions declined when compared to the same months in 2022. At the same time, the number of pets surrendered to shelters also fell, according to data from animal shelter data management agency Shelterwatch, formerly PetPoint. For example, in December 2023, pet shelters reported 140,129 outcomes, which includes both adoptions and fostering. In December 2022, that number stood at 170,060. Intakes also declined from December 2023 (138,502) to December 2023 (109,524). Overall, from July through December, both intakes and outcomes declined. If the decline in adoption rates corresponds to the United States pet ownership peaking or stagnating, the pet food industry could face challenges.
Shelter Outcomes 2022 vs. 2023
January
- 2023: 161,491
- 2022: 150,309
February
- 2023: 138,487
- 2022: 135,395
March
- 2023: 156,173
- 2022: 153,344
April
- 2023: 144,106
- 2022: 147,132
May
- 2023: 161,531
- 2022: 157,704
June
- 2023: 177,898
- 2022: 177,690
July
- 2023: 179,440
- 2022: 194,937
August
- 2023: 169,800
- 2022: 195,564
September
- 2023: 151,800
- 2022: 179,837
October
- 2023: 152,891
- 2022: 182,638
November
- 2023: 140,619
- 2022: 172,829
December
- 2023: 140,129
- 2022: 170,060
Shelter Intakes 2022 vs. 2023
January
- 2023: 148, 564
- 2022: 140,038
February
- 2023: 132,598
- 2022: 130,666
March
- 2023: 161,767
- 2022: 158,780
April
- 2023: 161,830
- 2022: 168,913
May
- 2023: 197,538
- 2022: 194,103
June
- 2023: 193,903
- 2022: 198,943
July
- 2023: 164,364
- 2022: 188,082
August
- 2023: 158,920
- 2022: 198,751
September
- 2023: 147,880
- 2022: 185,057
October
- 2023: 145,401
- 2022: 179,918
November
- 2023: 125,548
- 2022: 163,229
December
- 2023: 109,524
- 2022: 138,502
Consequences of a declining or stagnant pet population
Shelter data provides one of the few sources of recent data about pet populations in the United States, since private sales of dogs, cats and other pets aren’t reported publicly and other population estimates won’t be available until later in the year. A declining or stagnant pet population in the United States could challenge the pet food industry in the United States and other developed markets worldwide.
One obvious consequence would be a reduction in the overall demand for pet food and treats. A diminishing pet population directly correlates with a decreased need for pet nutrition. This decline in demand could force pet food manufacturers to reassess their production volumes and inventory management strategies. Companies may need to streamline their operations to align with the reduced market size, potentially leading to cost-cutting measures. As seen in 2023, increasing pet food sales value may likewise raise revenues despite falling or stagnant volumes. However, pet owners’ willingness to pay more may reach a limit, even for superpremium products.
In the longer term, a stagnant or declining pet population could intensify competition among pet food manufacturers. With a smaller market to cater to, companies would vie for a larger share of the pie, potentially triggering price wars and heightened marketing efforts to capture the attention of the remaining pet owners.
