In mid-2025, Mexico officially lifted its long-standing restriction on imports of Brazilian pet food by approving a new International Health Certificate. The announcement was immediately celebrated across the industry. On LinkedIn and in trade forums, Brazilian industry players expressed great enthusiasm about the development. Still, the reality is more complex than initial perceptions suggested. The opening is certainly important, but the dynamics point toward increased competition rather than true synergy.
Two leaders, different paths
According to Triplethree International, Brazil remains Latin America's largest pet food market, worth close to $14-$16 billion, supported by a massive domestic base. Mexico follows as the region's second-largest market, reaching more than $8 billion in 2025. The Mexican market has expanded rapidly on the back of pet humanization, strong urban demand and rising middle-class spending on pets as family members.
While Brazil's strengths lie in scale and competitive mid-tier formulations, Mexico's growth is increasingly tied to premiumization and diversification. Beyond the rise of high-end brands, the Mexican market is also expanding through new product formats, functional claims, and specialized channels. This divergence matters: one market driven primarily by cost and scale, the other by a mix of trust, quality positioning, and variety that broadens consumer choices.
The U.S. premium stronghold
The challenge for Brazilian exporters is clear. Mexico is already heavily supplied with imported premium brands, primarily from the U.S. In 2024, nearly 80% of Mexican dog and cat food imports came from U.S. suppliers, who dominate the premium shelf with strong brand recognition, extensive marketing, and established distribution. European brands also add to this competitive layer. For Brazilian companies, this means their true competition is not Mexico's domestic producers but these entrenched North American and European leaders.
An asymmetric relationship
The notion of bilateral synergy is difficult to sustain. Brazil's nationalistic consumer base, combined with a heavy tax burden on imported pet foods — often exceeding 50% when all federal and state levies are included — keeps foreign brands at a clear disadvantage. As a result, Mexico has not exported pet food to Brazil in recent years, reflecting this restrictive environment. In practice, the recent policy change creates essentially a one-way opportunity: Brazilian products may now reach Mexican consumers, but Mexican pet foods are unlikely to penetrate the Brazilian market under current conditions.
A door now open
Still, the opportunity is real. Brazilian suppliers bring scale, cost advantages and innovation in mid-tier segments. If they adapt to Mexico's demands, they can occupy the growing space between economy and premium.
Rather than synergy, the likely outcome is a new competitive dynamic — one that could enrich choices for Mexican shoppers while allowing determined Brazilian brands to secure a foothold. The door is open. Success will depend on how well Brazil steps through it.
Iván Franco is the founder of Triplethree International and has collaborated on hundreds of research projects for several consumer goods industries.
