Europe's 2026 summer heat wave has shifted climate-related supply disruptions from a theoretical risk to a tangible business challenge for pet food makers, with widespread crop losses across the continent raising concerns about ingredient availability, sourcing security and costs that companies must now proactively address through diversified sourcing strategies and resilient supply chain planning.
- France's maize harvest nearly halved to one of its lowest levels in 50 years during the 2026 European heat wave, affecting ingredient sourcing across the continent.
- EU soybean yields fell 15% below the five-year average, potatoes 7% below and sugar beet 11% below, impacting plant-based ingredients.
- Pet food manufacturers face higher procurement costs, variable specifications and changes in sourcing origins rather than widespread ingredient shortages.
- Companies like Tate & Lyle are diversifying ingredient sources, tripling regenerative agriculture programs and holding strategic stocks to cushion climate-related shocks.
- Pet food producers should qualify suppliers across different regions, agree on alternative ingredients in advance and hold targeted ingredient stocks to maintain product consistency.
Europe’s brutal 2026 summer heat wave has yet to trigger major disruption in the pet food supply chain, but the real impact may be lurking beneath the surface. With climate extremes increasingly affecting ingredient costs and sourcing security, the heat wave has become another warning that the industry may be more exposed than it realizes.
Extreme weather events have traditionally been thought to have a relatively limited impact on the pet food supply chain, according to Peter Alexander, personal chair of global food systems at the University of Edinburgh. “Weather-related events may play a role in increasingly tight food markets and consequently higher prices for food commodities,” he said. However, he added that their impact is generally far smaller than systemic shocks, such as spikes in energy and fertilizer prices linked to geopolitical conflicts in the Gulf.
The key reason, Alexander explained, is that weather-related disruptions are often regional — they rarely align globally enough to drive market prices to the same extent.
Yet, 2026 proved to be different. Europe’s scorching summer heat wave caused significant crop losses, with France’s maize harvest nearly halving to one of its lowest levels in 50 years. And this was far from an isolated case: The heat wave affected crops across the continent, raising concerns about its wider impact on the supply chain.
Full impact on pet food industry unclear so far
As a result of these more widespread events, climate-related supply disruptions have shifted from a distant, theoretical risk to a tangible business challenge that companies must proactively address, said Anna Pierce, sustainability director at Tate & Lyle.
The company, which supplies functional ingredients to pet food and animal feed manufacturers, has had to rethink its sourcing strategy over the last several years in response to growing climate-related risks.
In particular, the company diversified its waxy corn sourcing after the 2022 French droughts to safeguard supply and nearly tripled the acreage covered by its European regenerative agriculture program.
Tate & Lyle has also diversified sources of stevia and citrus ingredients, and is holding strategic stocks to cushion climate-related and geopolitical shocks, Pierce said.
However, the full impact of the 2026 climate events on the pet food industry remains difficult to quantify. FEDIAF, the European pet food industry association, said it was unable to comment on the effects of this year’s extreme weather on the sector.
Building more resilient sourcing strategies
Analysts do believe the 2026 European summer heat wave had only a moderate impact, but strong enough to prompt suppliers to double down on efforts to build more resilient sourcing strategies.
“We expect a meaningful but uneven impact [from the 2026 extreme heat on pet food], particularly on plant proteins, starches and fiber ingredients,” said Nandini Roy Choudhury, senior analyst with Future Market Insights, a research firm.
Choudhury cited the European Commission’s September forecasts, which put EU soybean yields 15% below the five-year average, potatoes 7% below and sugar beet 11% below. But, she emphasized these figures alone are insufficient to draw any conclusion. “These are yield forecasts, rather than confirmed reductions in ingredients available to pet food manufacturers,” she explained.
“Our assessment is that manufacturers are more likely to face higher procurement costs, variable specifications and changes in sourcing origins than widespread ingredient shortages,” Choudhury said. “Exposure will depend on their recipes, contracts and reliance on European suppliers.” In general, it is believed that products committed to local sourcing or a specific ingredient may have less flexibility.
Separately, the Future Market Insights analyst warned about indirect animal-protein risk. “Reduced grass and fodder availability is putting pressure on livestock farming. This could affect the cost and availability of animal-derived ingredients over time, although the effect will depend on livestock production and slaughter patterns,” Choudhury said. “It should not be interpreted as an immediate, uniform shortage of meat ingredients.”
Weather events not occurring in isolation
The challenge is compounded by the fact that this year’s weather extremes are no longer occurring in isolation. Coupled with geopolitical shocks, they are creating a more volatile global market environment and intensifying risks to ingredient availability, sourcing and costs, said Alexander of the University of Edinburgh.
The forthcoming El Niño may be another shock to the global supply chain, though the scale of potential disruptions remains unclear. “International food commodity markets do not appear to be pricing in dramatic consequences at present,” Alexander said.
In general, analysts believe 2026 showed again that climate risks should be taken seriously, including in the pet food industry, even though it is limited in scale and time.
“We view 2026 as a seasonal supply shock within a longer-term pattern of increasing climate risk,” Choudhury said. “A better harvest next year could ease individual shortages, but manufacturers should prepare for recurring disruption. European assessments already identify growing risks to food production from heat, drought and other weather extremes.”
For pet food producers, Choudhury said the practical response is to qualify suppliers across different growing regions, agree on alternative ingredients in advance and hold targeted stocks of ingredients that are difficult to replace. “The key challenge is maintaining consistent recipes and product quality when ingredient availability, cost and specifications become less predictable.”
